Testing the intrinsic mechanisms driving the dynamics of Ross River Virus across Australia

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1011944
• Publication Date: 2024-02-15T18:22:42Z
• Authors: Iain S. Koolhof; Nicholas Beeton; Silvana Bettiol; Michael Charleston; Simon M. Firestone; Katherine Gibney; Peter Neville; Andrew Jardine; Peter Markey; Nina Kurucz; Allan Warchot; Vicki Krause; Michael Onn; Stacey Rowe; Lucinda Franklin; Stephen Fricker; Craig Williams; Scott Carver
• Keywords: Ross River virus; Akaike information criterion; Zika Virus

The mechanisms driving dynamics of many epidemiologically important mosquito-borne pathogens are complex, involving combinations vector and host factors (e.g., species composition life-history traits), associated with transmission reporting. Understanding which intrinsic contribute most to observed disease is important, yet often poorly understood. Ross River virus (RRV) Australia’s disease, variable across geographic regions. We used deterministic ordinary differential equation models test RRV major epidemic centers in Brisbane, Darwin, Mandurah, Mildura, Gippsland, Renmark, Murray Bridge, Coorong. considered up two ( Aedes vigilax , Culex annulirostris camptorhynchus globocoxitus ), reservoir hosts (macropods, possums), seasonal effects, parameters. fit against long-term surveillance data (1991–2017) Akaike Information Criterion select mechanisms. combination species, hosts, effects explained best sites. Estimated vector-human rate (average β = 8.04x10 -4 per day) was similar despite different dynamics. Models estimate 43% underreporting infections. Findings enhance understanding mechanisms, provide parameter estimates can be guide future research into public health improvements offer a basis evaluate mitigation practices.