Linear and Nonlinear Trends of Extreme Temperatures in Korea

• DOI: 10.14191/atmos.2014.24.3.379
• Publication Date: 2014-11-20T02:33:09Z
• Authors: Sang-Wook Kim; Kanghyun Song; Seo-Yeon Kim; Seok-Woo Son; C. Franzke
• Keywords: Quantile

This study explores the long-term trends of surface air temperatures in 11 KMA stations over period 1960~2012. Both linear and nonlinear are examined for <TEX>$95^{th}$</TEX>, <TEX>$50^{th}$</TEX>, <TEX>$5^{th}$</TEX> percentiles daily maximum (<TEX>$T_{max}$</TEX>) minimum (<TEX>$T_{min}$</TEX>) by using quantile regression method. It is found that most <TEX>$T_{max}$</TEX> <TEX>$T_{min}$</TEX> generally stronger winter than summer, warming trend percentile temperature (cold extreme) <TEX>$95^{th}$</TEX> (warm both seasons. The trends, which evaluated second order polynomial fitting, show a strong nonlinearity winter. Specifically, have increased until 2000s but slightly decreased afterward all percentiles. contrasts with <TEX>$50^{th}$</TEX> summer decreasing 1980s then an increasing trend. While this result consistent seasonal dependence recent global hiatus, statistically insignificant, making quantitative attribution challenging.