Estimation of COVID-19–induced depletion of hospital resources in Ontario, Canada

• DOI: 10.1503/cmaj.200715
• Publication Date: 2020-05-14T20:50:53Z
• Authors: Kali Barrett; Yasin A. Khan; Stephen Mac; Raphael Ximenes; David M.J. Naimark; Beate Sander
• Keywords: Pandemic; Distancing; Hospital admission

<h3>BACKGROUND:</h3> The global spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues in several jurisdictions, causing substantial strain to health care systems. purpose our study was predict the effect COVID-19 pandemic on patient outcomes and use hospital resources Ontario, Canada. <h3>METHODS:</h3> We developed an individual-level simulation model flow patients with through system Ontario. simulated different combined scenarios epidemic trajectory capacity. Our included number who needed admission ward or intensive unit (ICU) without need for mechanical ventilation, days resource depletion, awaiting deaths. <h3>RESULTS:</h3> found that effective early public measures, would not be depleted. For late ineffective implementation physical distancing, depleted within 14–26 days, worst case scenario, 13 321 die while waiting resources. Resource depletion avoided delayed aggressive measures increase ICU, ventilator acute capacities. <h3>INTERPRETATION:</h3> distancing Ontario have been inadequately equipped manage expected despite a rapid This lack led mortality. By slowing using by increasing capacity, may catastrophic stresses its hospitals.