Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021

• DOI: 10.15585/mmwr.mm7019e3
• Publication Date: 2021-05-05T14:31:57Z
• Authors: Rebecca K. Borche...; Cécile Viboud; Emily Howerton; Claire P. Smith; Shaun Truelove; Michael C. Runge; Nicholas G. Reich; Lucie Contamin; John Levander; Jessica Salerno; Wilbert van Panhuis; Matt Kinsey; Kate Tallaksen; R. Freddy Obrecht; Laura Asher; Cash Costello; Michael Kelbaugh; Shelby Wilson; Lauren Shin; Molly E. Gallagher; Luke C. Mullany; Kaitlin Rainwater...; Joseph C. Lemaitre; Juan Dent; Kyra H. Grantz; Joshua Kaminsky; Stephen A. Lauer; Elizabeth C. Lee; Hannah R. Meredith; Javier Perez-Saez; Lindsay T. Keegan; Dean Karlen; Matteo Chinazzi; Jessica T. Davis; Kunpeng Mu; Xinyue Xiong; Ana Pastore y Pio...; Alessandro Vespig...; Ajitesh Srivastava; Przemyslaw Porebski; Srinivasan Venkat...; Aniruddha Adiga; Bryan Lewis; Brian Klahn; Joseph Outten; James Schlitt; Patrick Corbett; Pyrros Alexander ...; Lijing Wang; Akhil Sai Peddireddy; Benjamin Hurt; Jiangzhuo Chen; Anil Vullikanti; Madhav Marathe; Jessica M. Healy; Rachel B. Slayton; Matthew Biggerstaff; Michael A. Johansson; Katriona Shea; Justin Lessler
• Keywords: 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak

After a period of rapidly declining U.S. COVID-19 incidence during January-March 2021, increases occurred in several jurisdictions (1,2) despite the rapid rollout large-scale vaccination program. This increase coincided with spread more transmissible variants SARS-CoV-2, virus that causes COVID-19, including B.1.1.7 (1,3) and relaxation prevention strategies such as those for businesses, gatherings, educational activities. To provide long-term projections potential trends cases, hospitalizations, deaths, Scenario Modeling Hub teams used multiple-model approach comprising six models to assess course United States across four scenarios different coverage rates effectiveness estimates strength implementation nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (public health policies, physical distancing masking) over 6-month (April-September 2021) using data available through March 27, 2021 (4). Among scenarios, an accelerated decline NPI adherence (which encapsulates mandates population behavior) was shown undermine vaccination-related gains subsequent 2-3 months and, combination increased transmissibility new variants, could lead surges deaths. A sharp cases projected by July faster high-vaccination scenarios. High compliance public measures are essential control pandemic prevent hospitalizations deaths coming months.