Clinical and Laboratory Predictors for Forecasting the Outcomes of Ixodes Tick-Borne Borreliosis

• DOI: 10.15690/vramn.v70i3.1337
• Publication Date: 2015-07-13T14:53:07Z
• Authors: N.S. Minoranskaya; P.V. Sarap; ; N.V. Andronova; ; E.I. Minoranskaya
• Keywords: Tick-borne encephalitis; Tick-borne disease

Our aim was to identify the most informative clinical and laboratory predictors of chronicity Ixodes tick-borne borreliosis in acute phase disease based on "optimal cut-off values" (COV) predicted probability outcomes.A retrospective cohort controlled study carried out. We used technique ROC-analysis estimate information content indicators patients with erythemal (n =16), non-erythemal = 77) forms co-infection encephalitis 68) for prediction outcomes: recovery or chronization.A analysis parameters recorded 161 chronic borreliosis. The calculations were performed prognostic outcomes intervals above below COVvalues are defined probabilities chronization A general predictor all clinicalforms disease--the interleukin 8--was established: after form is 100.0% at level its production over 107.89 pg/ml (AUC 1.0), 54.63 ± 0.23% serum concentrations 94.64 0.770), 52.69 0.27% 8 84.96 0.780).The results suggest possibility predicting infection phase, which allows optimize etiopathogenic therapy a timely manner.