“Not The Economy, Stupid?” – Exploring the Potential Causes of a Future Polexit Departure from the EU

• DOI: 10.15804/ppsy202420
• Publication Date: 2024-09-03T13:31:06Z
• Authors: Artur Kozłowski; Grzegorz Krzykowski; ; Grahame Fallon
• Keywords: eu fragmentation; eu support social components; Political science (General); euroscepticism; polexit; poland; International relations; JA1-92; JZ2-6530; brexit

This paper explores the economic and non-economic factors that could potentially lead to a Polish decision to remain within or leave the EU, following a future potential Polexit referendum. The study aims to determine the relative impact of Polish citizens’ values and attitudes on their support for their country’s continued EU membership and integration, at such a crucial time. The research is based on a survey conducted in December 2021, with a stratified sample of 1,517 respondents, and a statistical analysis of the findings. The results suggest that the relative importance of these factors could vary considerably, with economic factors potentially playing a less significant role than sociocultural and political elements. We argue that this projected outcome is likely to be influenced by citizens’ socio-demographic backgrounds, their perceived levels of economic security or insecurity, and differences in their economic and non-economic values, thereby creating potential opportunities for future populist Eurosceptic politicians in Poland to exploit, underlining the potential implications of these findings.