Agent-based simulations for protecting nursing homes with prevention and vaccination strategies

• DOI: 10.17605/osf.io/hyd4r
• Publication Date: 2020-11-19
• Authors: Jana Lasser; Johannes Zuber; Johannes Sorger; Elma Dervić; Katharina Ledebur; Lindner Sd; Elisabeth Klager; Maria Kletečka-Pu...; Harald Willschke; Katrin Stangl; Sarah Stadtmann; Christian Haslinger; Peter Klimek; Thomas Wochele‐Thoma
• Keywords: Pandemic

Due to its high lethality amongst the elderly, safety of nursing homes has been central importance during COVID-19 pandemic. With test procedures becoming available at scale, such as antigen or RT-LAMP tests, and increasing availability vaccinations, might be able safely relax prohibitory measures while controlling spread infections (meaning an average one less secondary per index case). Here, we develop a detailed agent-based epidemiological model for SARS-CoV-2 in identify optimal prevention strategies. The is microscopically calibrated high-resolution data from Austria, including social contact networks information on past outbreaks. We find that effectiveness mitigation testing depends critically timespan between result, detection threshold viral load give positive screening frequencies residents employees. Under realistic conditions absence effective vaccine, preventive employees only sufficient control outbreaks homes, provided turnover times thresholds tests are low enough. If vaccines moderately against infection transmission available, achieved if 80% more inhabitants vaccinated, even no place allowed have visitors. Since these results strongly depend vaccine efficacy infection, retention infrastructures, regular voluntary sequencing virus genomes advised enable early identification new variants concern.