Fault Extent Estimation for Near-Real-Time Ground-Shaking Map Computation Purposes

• DOI: 10.1785/0120100306
• Publication Date: 2012-03-29T18:03:30Z
• Authors: V. Convertito; M. Caccavale; R. De Matteis; A. Emolo; D. Wald; A. Zollo
• Keywords: near-real-time earthquake; shakemaps; hazard; 01 natural sciences; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences

Rapid evaluation of strong ground‐shaking maps after moderate‐to‐large earthquakes is crucial to recognizing those areas where the largest damage and losses are expected. These play a fundamental role for emergency management. This particularly important having high seismic risk potential covered by dense networks. In near‐real‐time applications, produced integrating recorded data estimates obtained using ground‐motion predictive equations, which assume point‐source models. However, large earthquakes, improvements in predictions peak ground motion can be when fault extension orientation available. fact, detailed source information allows one use more robust source‐to‐site distance metric compared with hypocentral distance.

In this paper, technique estimating both extent (in terms its surface projection) dominant rupture direction presented. used map calculation codes aim improving respect model. The model parameters estimated maximizing probability density function based on residuals between observed predicted peak‐ground‐motion quantities, latter equations. space investigated defined through Bayesian approach, it explored grid‐searching technique. effectiveness proposed demonstrated offline numerical tests from three occurring different seismotectonic environments. selected 17 August 1999 M w 7.5 Kocaeli (Turkey) earthquake, 6 April 2009 w 6.3 L’Aquila (Italy) January 1994 w 6.7 Northridge (California) earthquake. results show that fast first order direction, could improve calculations.