Ground‐Motion Prediction Equations for Region‐Specific Probabilistic Seismic‐Hazard Analysis

• DOI: 10.1785/0120150096
• Publication Date: 2016-01-26T17:44:06Z
• Authors: G. Lanzano; M. D’Amico; C. Felicetta; R. Puglia; L. Luzi; F. Pacor; D. Bindi
• Keywords: 0211 other engineering and technologies; 02 engineering and technology

The goal of this article is to investigate the possibility reducing uncertainty ground motion predicted for a specific target area (Po Plain and northeastern Italy), by calibrating set ad hoc ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs).The derived GMPEs account peculiarities that are not generally considered standard predictive models, such as (1) an attenuation rate dependent on distance ranges geological domains; (2) enhancement short-period spectral ordinates, due reflection S waves at Moho discontinuity; (3) generation surface inside alluvial basin.The analyzed strong-motion dataset was compiled selecting events in 4.0-6.4magnitude range, records with distances shorter than 200 km, focal depths shallower 30 km; major contribution comes from recent 2012 Emilia sequence (first mainshock, 20 May M w 6.1; second 29 2015 6.0).The geometrical mean horizontal components peak acceleration, velocity, 5% damped acceleration 0.04-4 s period range.The region-specific models led reduction hazard levels several intensity measures, respect values obtained considering reference Italian model (Bindi et al., 2011), exemplified comparison curves computed two sites.Online Material: Database Northern Italy (DBNI) flat-file tables northern (GMPEs) (NI15) regression coefficients variability use Joyner-Boore hypocentral distances.