Active adaptive conservation of threatened species in the face of uncertainty

• DOI: 10.1890/09-0647.1
• Publication Date: 2010-06-22T21:35:54Z
• Authors: Eve McDonald-Madden; William J. M. Pro...; Cindy E. Hauser; Michael C. Runge; Hugh P. Possingham; Menna E. Jones; Joslin L. Moore; Tracy M. Rout; Peter A. Vesk; Brendan A. Wintle
• Keywords: Adaptive Management; Management by objectives

Adaptive management has a long history in the natural resource literature, but despite this, few practitioners have developed adaptive strategies to conserve threatened species. Active provides framework for valuing learning by measuring degree which it improves long-run outcomes. The challenge of an active approach is find correct balance between gaining knowledge improve future and achieving best short-term outcome based on current knowledge. We develop analyze Our case study concerns novel facial tumor disease affecting Australian species Sarcophilus harrisii: Tasmanian devil. use stochastic dynamic programming with Bayesian updating identify strategy that maximizes devil population growth rate, taking into account improvements through better understand latency relative effectiveness three competing options. Exactly action we choose each year driven credibility hypotheses about rate predicted hypothesis under actions. discover optimal combination actions depends number sites available time remaining implement management. amount effort invest achieve conservation objectives.