Evaluation and Projection of Mean Surface Temperature Using CMIP6 Models Over East Africa

• DOI: 10.20944/preprints202101.0611.v1
• Publication Date: 2021-01-29T14:29:19Z
• Authors: Brian Ayugi; Hamida Ngoma; Hassen Babaousmail; Riwzan Karim; Vedaste Iyakaremye; Kenny T.C. Lim Ka...; Victor Ongoma
• Keywords: Mean radiant temperature

This study evaluates the historical mean surface temperature (hereafter T2m) and examines how T2m changes over East Africa (EA) in 21st century using CMIP6 models. An evaluation was conducted based on state, trends, statistical metrics (Bias, Correlation Coefficient, Root Mean Square Difference, Taylor skill score). For future projections EA, five best performing models (based their performance ranking simulations) under shared socioeconomic pathways SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 scenarios were employed. The simulations reveal an overestimation of annual cycle region with fewer depicting underestimations. Further, reproduce spatial temporal trends within observed range proximity. Overall, are as follows: FGOALS-g3, HadGEM-GC31-LL, MPI-ESM2-LR, CNRM-CM6-1, IPSL-CM6A-LR. During three-time slice consideration, Multi Model Ensemble (MME) project many during late period (2080 – 2100) expected at 2.4 °C for 4.4 scenario. magnitude change Sen’s slope estimator Mann-Kendall test significant increasing tendencies 0.24°C decade-1 (0.65°C decade-1) (SSP5-8.5) scenarios. findings from this illustrate higher warming latest model outputs relative to its predecessor, despite identical instantaneous radiative forcing.