Design Floods Considering the Epistemic Uncertainty

• DOI: 10.20944/preprints202102.0363.v2
• Publication Date: 2021-05-14T06:50:55Z
• Authors: Radu Drobot; Aurelian Florenti...; Daniel Ciuiu; Romică Trandafir
• Keywords: Dimensionless quantity; Uncertainty Quantification

The design flood concept (DF) provides for an essential tool in designing the hydraulic works, defining reservoir operation programs and a reliable hazard identification. Under simplified approach, maximum discharge floods volume are statistically processed to reasonably define DF. Yet, integral hydrograph additional key temporal quantitative details of important significance management particularly res-ervoirs associated risks failures. procedure presented this paper (as applied on set compatibly shaped hydrographs) involves following stages: (i) normalize floods, (ii) similar shape classes (iii) evaluate average dimensionless (ADF) each class. ADFs finally transformed into (DF)s. Many statistical distributions approximate acceptably frequent values discharges or volumes, yet displaying significant spread medium rare probabilities exceedance (PE). This scattering, which can be explained by epistemic uncertainty, defines area uncertainty both measured extrapolated values. In considering upper lower in-tervals as limits then combining them compatibly, DFs - completely defined hydrographs, with different shapes results PE. herein proposed one peak DF multi-peaks Subsequently, such do assist water managers examining establishing tailored approaches variety input hydrographs. Among that would correspond same PE, most compact arise special interest, they basic safe rules structures.