Can Land Use Land Cover Change Explain the Reduced Resilience in Forests?

• DOI: 10.20944/preprints202310.0901.v1
• Publication Date: 2023-10-17T03:19:12Z
• Authors: Sara Alibakhshi; Hossein Azadi; Leonardo Espinosa...
• Keywords: 13. Climate action; 15. Life on land

Detecting abrupt transitions in ecosystems, known as regime shifts, holds immense implications for conservation and management endeavors. This research aims to investigate the feasibility of developing an early warning system capable of identifying an upcoming critical transition within Mangrove Forest ecosystems. Employing a fusion of remote sensing analysis, time series analysis, and the critical slowing down theory, Mangrove Forests' state change was explored across two distinct study sites. One site has been adversely affected by disturbances stemming from land use and land cover changes, while the other serves as an unaffected reference ecosystem. The study uses data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite, quantifying three remotely sensed indices: the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), and the Modified Vegetation Water Ratio (MVWR). Furthermore, temporal alterations in land-use and land cover are scrutinized using Landsat data from 1996, 2002, 2008, and 2014. To identify early warning signals of critical transitions, indicators such as autocorrelation, skewness, and standard deviation are applied. The results show the robust capabilities of remote sensing in generating early warning signals of critical transition in Mangrove Forests. NDVI outperformed MVWR and MNDWI as ecosystem state indicators. This study not only highlights the potential of remote in identifying the approaching regime shifts in Mangrove Forest ecosystems but also adds knowledge on ecosystem dynamics. This is the first report of the successful application of remote sensing in generating early warning signals for imminent critical transitions within Mangrove forests in the Middle East.