Challenges in the Forecasting of Severe Typhoon Koinu in 2023

• DOI: 10.20944/preprints202312.0165.v1
• Publication Date: 2023-12-05T00:51:21Z
• Authors: P.W. Chan; Y.H. He
• Keywords: Typhoon; Early warning system; Tropical cyclone scales

Hong Kong was under the direct hit of Severe Typhoon Koinu (2314) on 8 and 9 October 2023, necessitating issuance Increasing Gale or Storm Signal, No. 9. a very challenging case for TC forecasting warning services due to its compact size erratic movement over northern part South China Sea. This paper reviews difficulties challenges aspect severe typhoon. The predicted tropical cyclone track intensity from both conventional models emerging artificial intelligence are examined, as well local wind rainfall forecast. Experience in this study showed that while deterministic global only performed moderately were not able adequately support early warning, regional model AI could more effectively decision making operational service.