Integrating Forest Succession Modeling and a Physics-Based Fire Behavior Model to Support Long-Term Prescribed Fire Management

• DOI: 10.20944/preprints202502.1796.v1
• Publication Date: 2025-02-27T05:19:51Z
• Authors: Niko Tutland; Zachary Cope; Steven Flanagan; Adam Atchley; Zachary Robbins; E. Louise Loudermilk

Background: Fire modeling is a key prescribed fire planning tool, but there are limited operational tools for integrating current models of forest change and behavior.AimsWe sought to integrate widely used succession model, LANDIS-II, with powerful behavior QUIC-Fire, into flexible workflow assessing in projected future fuel conditions. MethodsUsing aboveground biomass, we matched LANDIS-II data cohorts trees Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) by predicting tree age across all FIA using Random modeling. We then voxelized those crowns along surface fuels create 3D model inputs. Key ResultsWe presented L2-QF, novel crosswalk methodology between cohort-based successional outputs individual characteristics three-dimensional arrays QUIC-Fire. demonstrated L2-QF through time multiple climate management scenarios, the conditions effects.ConclusionsL2-QF can be practitioners inform adaptive management, as highlighted our demonstration. ImplicationsBy long-term ecosystem changes everyday planning, allows managers stay proactive variable