A nomogram for predicting lymph node metastasis in surgically resected T1 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

• DOI: 10.21037/jtd.2018.06.51
• Publication Date: 2018-07-31T10:07:02Z
• Authors: Weiyu Shen; Yaxing Shen; Lijie Tan; Chenghua Jin; Yong Xi
• Keywords: Nomogram; Squamous carcinoma

Endoscopic therapies for T1 esophageal carcinoma have been increasingly used around the world. However, procedures are limited by without lymph nodes harvested. The risk of node metastasis (LNM) should established. Our objective was to construct a nomogram model predict risks LNM in patients with pT1 squamous cell (ESCC).We reviewed records 221 ESCC who underwent surgical resection and radical lymphadenectomy. Clinicopathological variables were analyzed univariate multivariate logistic regression analysis. A predicting constructed validated using bootstrap resampling.Of patients, 53 had examined as LNM. Following analysis, poor differentiation (P=0.0006), lymphovascular invasion (P<0.0001) SM3 (tumor invades lower third submucosal layer) (P=0.0192) cancer significantly independent factors entered into nomogram. showed robust discrimination, an area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.8667. calibration curves probability optimal agreement between predicted actual probability.We established that can provide individual ESCC, this has potential clinical utility making therapeutic procedures.