Development and Validation of a Collagen Nomogram for Pretreatment Prediction of Pathological Complete Response in Rectal Cancer Patients

• DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3925471
• Publication Date: 2021-10-09T23:17:48Z
• Authors: Wei Jiang; Shijie Wang; Zhangyuanzhu Liu; Jixiang Zheng; Min Li; Xiaoyu Dong; Botao Yan; Jiaxin Cheng; Guangxing Wang; Shuoyu Xu; Weiwei Xiao; Yuanhong Gao; Shuangmu Zhuo; Jun Yan
• Keywords: Nomogram

Background: Collagen in the tumour microenvironment is recognized as a potential biomarker for predicting treatment response. This study investigated whether collagen features are associated with pathological complete response (pCR) locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and develop validate prediction model individualized of pCR.Methods: The was developed primary cohort (353 consecutive patients). In total, 142 were extracted from multiphoton image pretreatment biopsy, least absolute shrinkage selection operator (Lasso) regression applied feature signature building. A nomogram by multivariable analysis. performance assessed respect to its discrimination, calibration, clinical utility. An independent (153 patients) used model.Findings: comprised 4 significantly pCR both two cohorts (P<0·0001). Predictors included clinicopathological predictors. showed good discrimination AUC 0·89 calibration. Good (AUC = 0·91) favourable calibration also confirmed validation cohort. Decision curve analysis utility nomogram.Interpretation: biopsy pCR. based on predictors could be LARC before nCRT.Funding Information: work supported grants National Natural Science Foundation China (81773117, 81771881, 82103041), State’s Key Project Research Development Plan (2019YFE0113700), Guangdong Provincial Laboratory Precision Medicine Gastrointestinal Cancer (2020B121201004), Major Talents (No.2019JC05Y361), Postdoctoral (2020M682789), Fujian Province (2018J07004), Joint Funds Health Education (2019-WJ-21), Technology Program (2018Y2003, 2019L3018 2019YZ016006), Clinical Startup Southern Medical University High-level Construction Funding Department (LC2016PY010), Nanfang Hospital (2018CR034, 2020CR001, 2020CR011), President Hospital, (2019Z023), Training Undergraduate Innovation Entrepreneurship (201912121008, 202012121091 202012121277).Declaration Interests: authors have no conflicts interest declare.Ethics Approval Statement: approved Institutional Review Board at University, Sun Yat-sen Center, Tumor Hospital. Written informed consent obtained all participants. conducted compliance Declaration Helsinki.