Projected Mid-Century Rainfall Erosivity Under Climate Change Over the Southeastern United States

• DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4108652
• Publication Date: 2022-05-28T12:05:35Z
• Authors: Bijoychandra S. T...; Puneet Srivastava; Jasmeet Lamba; Ryan P. McGehee; Hemendra Kumar; Di Tian
• Keywords: 13. Climate action; 15. Life on land

Recent observations and projections of climate change are expected to amplify erosion rates around the globe due changes in rainfall characteristics (e.g., energy, intensity, duration, frequency), which determine erosive power rainfall. However, degree extent these future still largely unknown, especially at finer-resolution local scales. Previous studies have relied on aggregated data or erosivity density-based extrapolations for estimations a lack available projected sub-hourly data. This study calculated southeastern US using standard calculation approach with recently published 15-minute precipitation dataset. was derived from five NA-CORDEX models’ products under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. In this dataset, hourly were bias corrected temporally downscaled resolution 187 locations collocated observations. Precipitation, index (EI), density (ED) provided historical (1970-1999) (2030-2059) time periods. Grid-derived values also compared corresponding original station as well. Ensemble results (as values) indicated 14%, 47%, 29% precipitation, erosivity, density, respectively. These indicate that may be driving more than amount. particular outcome obscured by correction downscaling limitations inherent dataset study’s analyses. general, coastal mountainous regions experience greatest absolute increase while other inland areas see relative change. work provides novel analysis they pertain potential erosion.