Entomological Surveillance and Spatiotemporal Risk Assessment of Sand Fly-Borne Diseases in Cyprus

• DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4493752
• Publication Date: 2023-07-12T14:25:08Z
• Authors: Maria Christou; Behich Koyutourk; Kardelen Yetismis; Angeliki F. Mart...; Vasiliki Christod...; Maria Koliou; Maria Antoniou; Yusuf Ozbel; Ozge Erisoz Kasap; Bulent Alten; Pantelis Georgiades; George K. Georgiou; Theo Christoudias; Yiannis Proestos; Jos Lelieveld; Kamil Erguler

Visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis are important public health concerns in Cyprus. Although the diseases, historically prevalent on island, were nearly eradicated by 1996, an increase frequency geographical spread has recently been recorded. Upward trends prevalence have largely attributed to environmental changes that amplify abundance activity of its vector, Phlebotomine sand flies. Here, we perform extensive field study across island map fly fauna compare presence distribution species found with historical records. We identify four Phlebotomus species, P. papatasi, tobbi, sergenti, galilaeus, as medically important, predict seasonal papatasi at unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution using a climate-sensitive population dynamics model driven high-resolution meteorological forecasting. As result, show Cyprus hosts rich 18 areas high relevance for subset. confirm is widespread, especially, densely urbanized areas, uniformly peaks end summer. potential hotspots even after this peak. Our results form foundation inform planning contribute development effective, efficient, environmentally sensitive strategies control populations prevent fly-borne diseases.