From Regional to Local Scales: Contextualizing Agricultural Impacts of 21st Century Climate Pathways in the Nyando Catchment, Kenya’ for Your Consideration for Publication in the Journal of Agricultural Water Management

• DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4576603
• Publication Date: 2023-09-19T18:17:47Z
• Authors: Katoria Lesaalon...; Albert Nkwasa; Lorenzo Villani; Ann van Griensven
• Keywords: Agricultural management

Climate change is projected to negatively affect agricultural productivity globally, with disproportionate effects in the Sub-Saharan region where vulnerability compounded by a high reliance on rainfed systems and low that limits options for adaptations. Current knowledge of climate impacts largely derived from global regional scale studies are generalized over regions, yet heterogeneous magnitudes could vary. This highlights need conduct localized assessments derive local vulnerabilities develop context-specific mitigation strategies. study utilizes downscaled outputs models evaluate maize sugarcane crops Nyando catchment Kenya. The findings indicate 21st century conditions will become increasingly unsuitable both higher temperatures driving an increase crop water demand increasing susceptibility stress. Quantitative estimates yields decline about 24% under RCP4.5 scenario 31% RCP8.5. Sugarcane similarly be suppressed yield declines 16% 8.5 respectively. Although trends agree related region, do differ, which emphasizes localize substantial agroclimatological heterogeneities exist even small spatial scales. Importantly, methodology demonstrated datasets applied here can readily adapted utilized catchments throughout region.