Projections of Future Changes in Precipitation and the Vertical Structure of the Frontal Zone during the Baiu Season in the Vicinity of Japan Using a 5-km-mesh Regional Climate Model

• DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.2012-a03
• Publication Date: 2012-06-06T22:34:27Z
• Authors: Sachie KANADA; Masuo NAKANO; Teruyuki KATO
• Keywords: 0207 environmental engineering; 02 engineering and technology

Future changes in precipitation and the vertical structure of frontal zone around Japan during Baiu season are investigated using regional climate experiments with a 5-km-mesh non-hydrostatic model, driven for present-day (1979-2003) future (2075-2099) climates by output from global warming 20-km-mesh atmospheric circulation model under SRES-A1B scenario.Significant increases projected relative to daily amounts western late season. The percentage occurring intense (over 100 mm day-1) statistical confidence above 98% level. In climate, 9% 25-year-mean amount early July region within 30°N-35°N 127°E-137°E is estimated be dominated precipitation; this value rises 15% climate.Changes front environmental conditions investigated. delay northward march projected, mean location 33.0°N, compared 33.5°N present-day. water vapor on southern side at 500 m height 19.7 g kg-1 an increase 2.8 Mean cross-sections reveal tall structures vorticity (> 1.0 × 10-5 s-1) along intensified updrafts large rainwater climate. Two characteristic jets associated front, located 700 hPa level 200 northern side, also intensified. supply convective activity could contribute occurrence precipitation.