SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance in the Middle East and North Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

• DOI: 10.2196/25830
• Publication Date: 2020-12-10T16:49:18Z
• Authors: Lori Post; Emily Marogi; Charles B Moss; Robert Leo Murphy; Michael G Ison; Chad J Achenbach; Danielle Resnick; Lauren Singh; Janine White; Michael J Boctor; Sarah B Welch; James Francis Oehmke
• Keywords: Pandemic; Public health surveillance

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the lives of millions and forced countries to devise public health policies reduce pace transmission. In Middle East North Africa (MENA), falling oil prices, disparities in wealth infrastructure, large refugee populations have significantly increased disease burden COVID-19. light these exacerbating factors, surveillance is particularly necessary help leaders understand implement effective control SARS-CoV-2 persistence Objective goal this study provide advanced metrics, combination with traditional surveillance, for transmission that account weekly shifts speed, acceleration, jerk, better a country’s risk explosive growth inform those who are managing pandemic. Existing coupled our dynamic metrics will policy until an vaccine developed. Methods Using longitudinal trend analysis design, we extracted 30 days data from registries. We used empirical difference equation measure daily number cases MENA as function prior cases, level testing, shift variables based on panel model was estimated using generalized method moments approach by implementing Arellano-Bond estimator R. Results regression Wald statistic significant (χ25=859.5, P<.001). Sargan test not significant, failing reject validity overidentifying restrictions (χ2294=16, P=.99). Countries highest cumulative caseload novel coronavirus include Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Israel 530,380, 426,634, 342,202, 303,109 respectively. Many smaller higher infection rates than caseloads. Oman 33.3 new infections per 100,000 population while Bahrain 12.1, Libya 14, Lebanon 14.6 people. order largest smallest deaths since January 2020, Egypt, Arabia 30,375, 10,254, 6120, 5185, Israel, Bahrain, Lebanon, had persistence, which statistically related week. positive signaling potential growth. Conclusions Static more complete picture progression across MENA. measures capture at given point time such death rates. By including 7-day officials may design eye future. all demonstrated rate infections, prompting increase prevention efforts.