Communicating Scientific Uncertainty About the COVID-19 Pandemic: Online Experimental Study of an Uncertainty-Normalizing Strategy (Preprint)

• DOI: 10.2196/preprints.27832
• Publication Date: 2021-04-22T14:35:48Z
• Authors: Paul K J Han; Elizabeth Scharne...; Aaron M Scherer; Alistair Thorpe; Christine Lary; Leo B Waterston; Angela Fagerlin; Nathan F Dieckmann
• Keywords: Ambiguity aversion; Prosocial Behavior; Uncertainty avoidance; Uncertainty; Worry

<sec> <title>BACKGROUND</title> Communicating scientific uncertainty about public health threats such as COVID-19 is an ethically desirable task endorsed by expert guidelines on crisis communication. However, the communication of challenging because its potential to promote &lt;i&gt;ambiguity aversion&lt;/i&gt;—a well-described syndrome negative psychological responses consisting heightened risk perceptions, emotional distress, and decision avoidance. Communication strategies that can inform while mitigating ambiguity aversion are a critical unmet need. </sec> <title>OBJECTIVE</title> This study aimed evaluate whether “uncertainty-normalizing” strategy—aimed at reinforcing expected nature pandemic—can reduce aversion, compare effectiveness conventional promoting hope prosocial values. <title>METHODS</title> In online factorial experiment conducted from May June 2020, national sample 1497 US adults read one five versions informational message describing nature, transmission, prevention, treatment COVID-19; varied in level expressed supplemental focus (ie, uncertainty-normalizing, hope-promoting, prosocial). Participants then completed measures cognitive, emotional, behavioral manifestations perceived likelihood getting COVID-19, worry, intentions for risk-reducing behaviors vaccination). Analyses assessed (1) extent which communicating produced ambiguity-averse responses; (2) comparative reducing (3) moderators effects alternative strategies. <title>RESULTS</title> The pandemic increased worry consistent with aversion. it did not affect or vaccination. uncertainty-normalizing strategy reduced these aversive uncertainty, resulting levels both differ control communicate uncertainty. contrast, hope-promoting decrease Age political affiliation, respectively, moderated COVID-19. <title>CONCLUSIONS</title> produces cognitive but behavioral, among general public, reduces responses. Normalizing may be effective efforts. More research needed test elucidate factors moderate their effectiveness.