Assessing the Uncertainty of Land Based Carbon Sequestration: A Parameter Uncertainty Analysis with a Global Land Use Model

• DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.49416
• Publication Date: 2009-01-01
• Authors: Yoon Hyung Kim; Brent Sohngen
• Keywords: Latin Hypercube Sampling; Elasticity

This paper analyzes the effect of uncertainty in several key parameters on marginal costs carbon sequestration forests. These include land supply elasticity, which governs conversion from agriculture to forests and vice versa; forest biomass yield function; density functions for accessing inaccessible land. Monte Carlo techniques are thus used turn global model with no probability (e.g., Sohngen & Mendelsohn, 2003; 2007) into a proper through Latin hypercube sampling. For this paper, we have restricted our analysis consideration distributions only two described above. Specifically, these function elasticity. The importance index least square linearization determine relative contribution input results. Five hundred runs one simulation were performed covariability among parameters. simulations indicated that most area developed countries relates while developing countries, where deforestation is more important Brazil), showed elasticity implications supply. results perhaps not too surprising but they do point need empirically estimate elasticities regions like Brazil, such estimates currently available literature. also provide information can be intervals cost functions.