Projecting Long-Term Diabetes Complications through a BRAVO-Based Mock Simulation for Promoting Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP)

• DOI: 10.2337/db18-701-p
• Publication Date: 2018-06-22T18:57:35Z
• Authors: HUI SHAO; SHUANG YANG; VIVIAN FONSECA; XU JI; LIZHENG SHI
• Keywords: Stroke

Correctly understanding consequences of diabetes is essential for motivating prediabetic patients to join the prevention program (DPP). The overall population estimates on complications may be lower than individual’s risk which are subjective their life expectancy. This study using a newly developed model aimed project major complications, conditioning range survival lengths. 2011-2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data were used generate nationally representative sample diagnosed patients. Building, Relating, Validating, Acting Validating Outcomes (BRAVO) simulation was long-term risks NHANES sample. cohort simulated followed up 20/40 years, zero mortality (i.e., mock experiment) cumulative incidence during follow-up periods each complication recorded. average age 51.66 y. For who have survived 20 years after onset, probabilities were: MI (20.4%), stroke (7.8%), congestive heart failure (CHF, 10.6%), angina (13.4%), revascularization surgery (RS, 54.4%), end-stage renal disease (ESRD, 11.7%), severe pressure sensation loss (SPSL, 56.6%), blindness (27%). 40 (55.8%), (24.3%), CHF (46.1%), (34.4%), RS (85.8%), ESRD (31.7%), SPSL (86.9%), (64.9%). presentation long time could help prediabetes better assess impact health. BRAVO-base decision support serve as tool educate benefits program. Disclosure H. Shao: None. S. Yang: V. Fonseca: Consultant; Self; Abbott. Board Member; American Association Clinical Endocrinologists. Eli Lilly Company. Stock/Shareholder; Amgen Inc.. Asahi Kasei Corporation, AstraZeneca, Novo Nordisk Inc., ADOCIA, Intarcia Therapeutics, Sanofi-Aventis. X. Ji: L. Shi: