Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease Risk in a General, Pre-Diabetic, and Diabetic Population During 10 Years of Follow-up: Accuracy of the Framingham, SCORE, and UKPDS Risk Functions

• DOI: 10.2337/dc09-0745
• Publication Date: 2009-10-29T16:49:49Z
• Authors: Amber A.W.A. van ...; Monica M. Ortegon; Louis W. Niessen; Giel Nijpels; Jacqueline M. Dekker
• Keywords: Reproducibility of results; Blood Glucose; Male; Time Factors; Receiver operating characteristic; Coronary Disease; Coronary risk; 0302 clinical medicine; Diabetes complications; Risk Factors; Multicenter Studies as Topic; Multicenter studies as topic; Middle aged; Accuracy; Risk assessment; Original Research; Coronary disease; Fatality; Middle Aged; 3. Good health; Massachusetts; Calibration; Female; Human; Adult; Ischemic heart disease; 610; Major clinical study; Follow-up studies; Rating scale; Article; Diabetes Complications; Prediabetic State; 03 medical and health sciences; Population based case control study; 616; Blood glucose; Humans; Great britain; Aged; Diabetic angiopathies; Time factors; Reproducibility of Results; Diabetes mellitus, type 2; Follow up; United Kingdom; Outcome assessment; Glucose tolerance test; Risk factors; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2; Hyperglycemia; Prediabetic state; Non insulin dependent diabetes mellitus; Controlled study; Diabetic Angiopathies; Follow-Up Studies

To test the validity of Framingham, Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), and UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk function in prediction coronary heart disease (CHD) populations with normal glucose tolerance (NGT), intermediate hyperglycemia, type 2 diabetes.Calibration discrimination three models were tested using prospective data for 1,482 Caucasian men women, 50-75 years age, who participated Hoorn Study. All analyses stratified by status.During 10 follow-up, a total 197 CHD events, which 43 fatal, observed this population, highest percentage first events diabetic group. The Framingham UKPDS overestimated event all groups. Overall, had low to moderate discriminatory capacity. SCORE was best predictor fatal group NGT (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.79 [95% CI 0.70-0.87]), whereas performed better hyperglycemia (0.84 [0.74-0.94]) estimation risk. After exclusion known patients, higher ability diabetes.The use is likely overestimate an individual's absolute In prevention, application functions might be useful absence more valid tool.