The Reliability Of Extreme Surge Levels, Estimated From ObservationalRecords Over 100 Years

• DOI: 10.2495/ce030451
• Publication Date: 1970-01-01
• Authors: H. W. van den Brink; G. P. Können; J. D. Opsteegh
• Keywords: Storm Surge; Return period

Ensemble simulations with a total length of 5336 years were generated the KNMI General Circulation Model ECBilt, coupled simple surge model to transform wind field over North Sea level at Delfzijl (NL). The resulting skew surges analysed Generalized Extreme Value distribution study uncertainty in estimates return period 104 years, as derived from observational records order hundred years. 46 estimated levels calculated sets 116 year each, vary between 4.5 and 17 meters, median 8.5 meter. 10~-~ear estimate 118-year record (5.8 meter) fits well among these subsets, but this is considerably lower than ensemble estimate. For an within 10 %, about 103 required. CO2-doubling does not have detectable influence on mean speed ECBilt. However, hints excitation severe storms, frequency once 250 year. In storms tend dominate 104-year value Sea.