Potential Effects of Climate Change on Offshore Aquaculture of the Mediterranean Mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis, Lamarck, 1819) in Portugal

• DOI: 10.2983/035.042.0204
• Publication Date: 2023-09-08T17:08:45Z
• Authors: John Icely; Bruno Fragoso
• Keywords: Blue mussel; Ocean Acidification

There is increasing concern on how future climate change (CC) will affect fish and shellfish populations. The European Union funded the Climate aquatic RESources (CERES) consortium to collaborate with industry policy stakeholders test CC scenarios through 24 "storylines" linked specific regional fisheries or aquaculture activities. For this study, focus "storyline 7" related offshore longline for Mediterranean (Med) mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis, Lamarck, 1819) along Atlantic coast at Sagres, Southern Portugal. CERES has compared two greenhouse gas emission in terms of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 8.5 W m–2 projected mean sea surface temperature (SST) net primary production (PP) comparing period 2000 2019 2080 2099. With regard SST Algarve, prediction an increase up 1°C under RCP 2°C by end century, while changes PP are much more variable, a trend slight both 8.5. Some key research activities included experimental study testing combined effects (3°C, 8°C, 15°C, 20°C, 25°C) chlorophyll (2.10 µg–1), data from which was used WinShell mass balance model based individual Med grown Sagres then incorporated into local-scale Farm Aquaculture Resource Management provide projecting climate-driven potential. Mussel weight harvest yield similar scenarios, periodic time periods between years able adapt 25°C provided reasonable. A core activity engagement stakeholders, help bow-tie analysis reflect stakeholder concerns about current factors affecting production, as well development probabilistic Bayesian Belief Network linking biological projections economic consequences measures whether management systems can identified risks scenarios. Initial interactions showed that they were concerned day-to-day issues, including failure spat recruitment, reduced condition, closures due harmful algal blooms, rather than any hypothetical problems arising CC. Nonetheless, there interest when potential presented. does seem be better adapted higher blue edulis).