Resetting global health goals: modelling cost-effective targets for anaemia reduction

• DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/pr87k_v2
• Publication Date: 2025-06-04T16:17:31Z
• Authors: Robin Blythe; Natalie Carvalho; Jacinta Holloway-...; Sumie Leung; Victoria L Oliver; Yingying Wang; Clare Glover-Wright; Sant-Rayn Pasricha; Michael Bode
• Keywords: Cost reduction

BackgroundAnaemia causes widespread health and economic harms. Current international targets for reducing anaemia in women of reproductive age, including the Sustainable Development Goal halving prevalence by 2030, are unlikely to be met any country. This suggests that current were grounded aspiration rather than a systematic assessment what is achievable given recommended interventions national healthcare priorities.MethodsWe develop country-level model support feasible ambitious target-setting based on cost-effectiveness, applied 191 countries. Our integrates country-specific data prevalence, intervention costs, effectiveness coverage. Interventions maximise gains subject cost-effectiveness thresholds at 1 × gross domestic product per capita. We assess parameter uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulations scenarios consider alternative thresholds, constraints cost, coverage.FindingsOur results indicate an ambitious, cost-effective global target reduction 17% [95% interval: 5% – 34%]. The maximum 22% [11% - 36%] reduction. No scenario approached 50% target, indicating this goal unachievable with existing interventions. Targets individual countries ranged from 0% 29%, substantial variation both between within regions income groups. InterpretationOur findings suggest value-based will significantly lower commitments. Value-based using evidence about countries’ differing contexts can provide better incentives progress offer more realistic forecasts human development.