Linking excess mortality to mobility data during the COVID-19 pandemic in England and Wales

• DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/75d6m
• Publication Date: 2020-07-07T16:54:19Z
• Authors: Ugofilippo Basellini; Diego Alburez-Gut...; Emanuele Del Fava; Daniela Perrotta; Marco Bonetti; Carlo Giovanni Ca...; Emilio Zagheni
• Keywords: Pandemic; Excess mortality; Leverage (statistics); 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; New england

Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented worldwide to curb the spread of COVID-19. However, effectiveness such governmental measures in reducing mortality burden remains a key question scientific interest and public debate. In this study, we leverage digital mobility data assess effects reduced human on excess mortality, focusing regional England Wales between February August 2020. We estimate robust association reductions lower after adjusting for time trends differences mixed-effects regression framework considering five-week lag two measures. predict that, absence reductions, number deaths could more than doubled during period, especially London area. The study is one first attempts quantify COVID-19 pandemic.