Why win-wins are rare in complex environmental management

• DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/cfp43
• Publication Date: 2021-01-07T15:42:18Z
• Authors: Margaret Hegwood; Ryan E. Langendorf; Matthew G. Burgess
• Keywords: Intuition; Skepticism; Bridge (graph theory)

High-profile modeling studies often project that large-scale win-win solutions are widely available, but practitioners skeptical of narratives, due to real-world complexity. Here, we bridge this divide by showing mathematically why complexity makes win-wins elusive. We provide a general proof that, under uncertainty, the probability manager should assign outcomes (here meaning Pareto improvements) existing strictly decreases in: number objectives, stakeholders, and constraints. also show measure tradeoff severity increases in approaches limit unaffected surface curvature. This is important because most empirically estimated two-dimensional surfaces concave—77%, meta-analysis. Concave tradeoffs less severe, our theory suggests difference dissipates higher dimensions. Our results precise intuition quantitative guidance for interpreting implications simple complex realities.