Application of the theory of “Military campaign success” based on the genetic algorithm of “The Art of War” to the war between Israel and Iran

• DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/j42ra_v1
• Publication Date: 2025-05-15T09:23:02Z
• Authors: WEI MENG; Xiaoyin Zhang

This paper discusses the development of dynamics in the Israel-Iran conflict, with a forecastfor 2024, using military wisdom inspired by Sun Tzu's Art of War in combination withgenetic algorithms and complexity theory. The research points out how a variety of strategiesundertaken result in combat resource consumption, morale, changes in international politics, and the creation of a multisegmented simulation in war between Israel and Iran. Theresearch methodology includes a genetic algorithm that optimizes strategies, a nonlinearinteraction analysis of complexity theory, and a calculus model that simulates resourcedepletion and morale changes. The results indicate that the rapid strike strategy of Israelparticipates in short-term superiority and deteriorates logistically and in morale as theduration of the war lengthens. On the contrary, Iran can flexibly adapt to a long war ofattrition by using guerrilla warfare and asymmetric warfare. The result of the study indicatesthat Israel's capability for combat and supply lines would be weakened by the long warstrategy, and asymmetric tactics by Iran hold an even higher advantage in this type ofconflict; it must serve as a reference for strategic decision-making of nations in the futurewhen confronting similar conflicts.