Projection of changes in future weather extremes using super-high-resolution global and regional atmospheric models in the KAKUSHIN Program: Results of preliminary experiments

• DOI: 10.3178/hrl.3.49
• Publication Date: 2009-12-15T07:50:07Z
• Authors: Akio Kitoh; Tomoaki Ose; Kazuo Kurihara; Shoji Kusunoki; Masato Sugi
• Keywords: Atmospheric models

Changes in future weather extremes are projected using a global atmospheric general circulation model and non-hydrostatic regional climate under the warming environment near (2030s) at end of 21st century. The 20-km mesh can simulate tropical cyclones more realistically their strength, structure geographical distribution together with associated heavy rainfall strong surface winds as compared lower resolution models. According to SRES A1B scenario, it is that century there will be 40%∼60% increase precipitation 15%∼20% wind speeds within 100 km radius cyclone center. Ensemble simulations 60-km version performed obtain information on uncertainty projections. Downscaling 5-km also for Japanese summer rainy season. It found frequency hourly well daily precipitation. In particular, even future: 99.9%-ile value increases 7% 21%