Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

• DOI: 10.3354/cr01322
• Publication Date: 2015-06-25T14:01:35Z
• Authors: N Pirttioja; TR Carter; S Fronzek; M Bindi; H Hoffmann; T Palosuo; M Ruiz-Ramos; F Tao; M Trnka; M Acutis; S Asseng; P Baranowski; B Basso; P Bodin; S Buis; D Cammarano; P Deligios; MF Destain; B Dumont; F Ewert; R Ferrise; L François; T Gaiser; P Hlavinka; I Jacquemin; KC Kersebaum; C Kollas; J Krzyszczak; IJ Lorite; J Minet; MI Minguez; M Montesino; M Moriondo; C Müller; C Nendel; I Öztürk; A Perego; A Rodríguez; AC Ruane; F Ruget; M Sanna; MA Semenov; C Slawinski; P Stratonovitch; I Supit; K Waha; E Wang; L Wu; Z Zhao; RP Rötter
• Keywords: [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences; 550; Climate; 01 natural sciences; Saksa; sensitivity analysis; sato; wheat; ilmasto; Geología; Crop model; 2. Zero hunger; maaperä; Agricultura; ta4111; kasvinviljely; Wheat; analyysi; vehnä; Impact response surface; Sensitivity analysis; crop modelling; mallintaminen; Yield; Climate; Crop model; Impact response surface; IRS; Sensitivity analysis; Wheat; Yield; Environmental Chemistry; 2300; Atmospheric Science; IRS; ta1172; yields; ta1171; Triticum aestivum; 610; Suomi; herkkyys; climate; 0105 earth and related environmental sciences; ddc:550; wheats; sensitiivisyys; crop model; Climate; Crop model; Impact response surface; IRS; Sensitivity analysis; Wheat; Yield; impact response surface; Espanja; mallit; Climate; Crop model; Impact response surface; IRS; Sensitivity analysis; Wheat; Yield; Atmospheric Science; 2300; Environmental Chemistry; ilmastonmuutokset; 15. Life on land; yield; 13. Climate action; Kasvintuotanto

CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout JournalEditorsSpecials 65:87-105 (2015) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01322 Contribution Special: 'Modelling climate change impacts for food security' Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces N. Pirttioja1,*, T. R. Carter1, S. Fronzek1, M. Bindi2, H. Hoffmann3, Palosuo4, Ruiz-Ramos5, F. Tao4, Trnka6,7, Acutis8, Asseng9, P. Baranowski10, B. Basso11, Bodin12, Buis13, D. Cammarano14, Deligios15, M.‑F. Destain16, Dumont16, Ewert3, Ferrise2, L. François16, Gaiser3, Hlavinka6,7, I. Jacquemin16, K. C. Kersebaum17, Kollas17, J. Krzyszczak10, Lorite18, Minet16, Minguez5, Montesino19, Moriondo20, Müller21, Nendel17, Öztürk22, A. Perego8, Rodríguez5, Ruane23,24, Ruget13, Sanna8, Semenov25, Slawinski10, Stratonovitch25, Supit26, Waha21,27, E. Wang28, Wu29, Z. Zhao28,30, Rötter4 1Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), 00251 Helsinki, Finland 2-30See title page of Supplement at www.int-res.com/articles/suppl/c065p087_supp.pdf full author addresses *Corresponding author: [e-mail] ABSTRACT: This study explored utility surface (IRS) approach investigating responses under large range changes in climate. IRSs spring winter Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from 26-member process-based simulation models sites Finland, Germany Spain latitudinal transect. The sensitivity modelled systematic increments temperature (-2 +9°C) (-50 +50%) was tested by modifying values baseline (1981 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed 360 ppm. IRS offers an effective method portraying behaviour changing as well advantages analysing, comparing presenting results multi-model simulations. Though individual occasionally departed markedly average, median varieties indicated that decline higher temperatures decreased increase precipitation. Across uncertainty ranges defined IRSs, more sensitive than Finnish site while sensitivities mixed German Spanish sites. Precipitation diminished changes. While bivariate characteristics impose some limits interpretation, nonetheless provides additional insights into inter-model inter-annual variability. Taken together, these may help pinpoint processes such heat stress, vernalisation or drought requiring refinement future development. KEY WORDS: · Crop Impact Sensitivity Wheat Yield Full text pdf format Supplementary material PreviousNextCite this article as: Pirttioja N, Carter TR, Fronzek S, Bindi M others surfaces. Clim Res 65:87-105. Export citation Tweet linkedIn Cited Published Vol. 65. Online publication date: September 28, 2015 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; 1616-1572 Copyright © Inter-Research.