Climate projections of precipitation and temperature in cities from ABC Paulista, in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo—Brazil

• DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1127026
• Publication Date: 2023-05-17T05:39:27Z
• Authors: María Cleofé Valv...; Bianca Nunes Calado; Gabrielle Gomes C...; Larissa Yumi Kuroki; Ricardo Brambila; Aline Ramos de Sousa
• Keywords: Mean radiant temperature

Cities are increasingly vulnerable to climate change's impacts and poorly adapted extreme variability. This study aimed evaluate projections of air temperature precipitation in seven cities the Metropolitan Region São Paulo that correspond Greater ABC Paulista. We used high-resolution models Eta-HADGEM2_ES (CMIP5), CNRM-CM6-1-HR (CMIP6), TerraClimate database analyze future specific warming levels (SWLs), respectively. Model data were validated with observed bias was removed. A correction factor generated for different emission scenarios. The results show a consensus between SWLs (2 4°C) increase maximum (Tmax) minimum (Tmin) temperatures all municipalities Paulista scenarios until end 21st century. For nearest (2020–2040), city Caetano do Sul (SCS) shows highest positive annual anomalies Tmax concerning climatological period (1985–2015), scenario RCP4.5 (2.8°C) RCP8.5 (7.4°C), according from Eta-HADGEM2_ES, highlighting summer autumn as hottest. precipitation, there reduction time-slices 2020–2040 2041–2070. Diadema (−78.4%) SCS (−78%) showed most significant reductions December RCP8.5, SSP5-8.5, −30.9% time-slice. On other hand, presents excess rain Ribeirão Pires (+24.8%) Santo André (+23.7%) winter SWL4°C. These suggest an Tmin, projected, should influence intensity heat events. Furthermore, seasonal rainfall does not mean decrease region's daily events cause floods landslides. However, it leaves alert water scarcity supply demand population. have adaptation plans face change. can contribute first phase creating plan, giving view threat intensify twentieth century affecting municipalities.