Long-range prediction of the tropical cyclone frequency landfalling in China using thermocline temperature anomalies at different longitudes

• DOI: 10.3389/feart.2023.1329702
• Publication Date: 2023-12-29T04:57:21Z
• Authors: Chunlei Liu; Rong Zheng; Liang Jin; Ruijuan Bao; Ning Cao; Xiaoqing Liao; Yufeng Xue; Hailiang Chen; Ke Yang; Qianye Su
• Keywords: Landfall; Subtropical ridge; Tropical cyclone scales

The landfalls of the tropical cyclone (TC) along coast China have caused huge economic damages. There are approximately nine TC in every year. It will be beneficial if landfall frequency can predicted advance. Inspired by study Sparks and Toumi (Commun Earth Environ, 30-1-2020), six datasets, including four ocean reanalyses two object analyses from 1993 to 2019, employed consistency relationship between thermocline temperature anomalies at different longitudes coastal areas (South China, East whole China). tested order confirm our hypothesis that eastward westward transports heat warm pool causes significant correlations. results show some correlations various longitudes, predict for several months or longer. Further also shows close transport sea surface genesis locations landfalls. western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) during high-frequency years favorable spatial patterns South respectively. In with a displacement WPSH ridge steers toward while is located further north, extension proximity Sea.