Carbon conduction effect and multi-scenario carbon emission responses of land use patterns transfer: a case study of the Baiyangdian basin in China

• DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1374383
• Publication Date: 2024-03-13T04:59:02Z
• Authors: Xing Gao; Meiran Zhao; Mengmeng Zhang; Zhongyuan Guo; Xiao Liu; Zihua Yuan
• Keywords: Carbon fibers

Carbon pooling and release occur all the time in corners of earth, where land use factor is key to influencing realization carbon peaking neutrality. Land patterns emissions change under different scenarios analyzing correlation will help formulate scientific policies for future. In this study, through remote sensing data, we investigated changes Baiyangdian basin China from 2000 2020 analyzed conduction effect with a transfer matrix. The geographical simulation optimization system-future (GeoSOS-FLUS) Markov models were used predict four region 2035. results indicated that 1) net increased 52,163.03 × 10 3 260,754.91.28 t 2020, source-sink ratio exhibited general uptrend; 2) due terrestrial transfers over time. effects forests, grasslands, water areas, unused lands built-up also showed rising trend, albeit latter two only small changes; 3) 2035, uptake development was predicted be 404,238.04 , 402,009.45 404,231.64 404,202.87×10 t, respectively, values much higher than study area 2020. maximum sink capacity 817.88 double-carbon target scenario, source emission 405,033.61 natural scenario. above provide an essential reference low carbon-based urban regulations other similar projects