Leadership transition, ally restraints, and target state resistance

• DOI: 10.3389/fpos.2024.1459665
• Publication Date: 2025-01-06T13:28:35Z
• Authors: Haixia Qi; Qi Wang; Ruoxing Li
• Keywords: ally restraints; target resistance; leadership transition; leader’s decision; international conflict; Political science; J

Understanding how target states respond to international provocations is crucial the study of crisis management and conflict onset. The primary focus existing research on individual effects ally influence domestic politics without considering their interaction. This addresses this gap by exploring combined impact leadership transitions, manners leader entry, ally’s importance states’ decisions resist challenges. Utilizing Truly Dyadic Dyad-Year (TDD) version Militarized Interstate Confrontation (MIC) dataset from 1920 2014, Archigos dataset, logit models for statistical testing, our findings reveal that transitions irregular means leaders entry significantly increase likelihood resistance, particularly when seek consolidate power. Moreover, although support a powerful may embolden state resist, restraining effect allies during state’s becomes more pronounced. Our highlights intricate balance between political considerations external influences, emphasizing an understanding context essential comprehending effectiveness restraints.