Age–period–cohort analysis of epidemiological trends in pelvic fracture in China from 1992 to 2021 and forecasts for 2046

• DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1428068
• Publication Date: 2024-07-08T04:53:52Z
• Authors: Qingsong Chen; Tao Li; Hong Ding; Guangbin Huang; Dingyuan Du; Jun Yang
• Keywords: Cohort effect

Background This study explored the epidemiological trends in pelvic fracture (PF) China from 1992 to 2021, analyze their relationships with age–period–cohort (APC) factors, and predict of PF 2022 2046. Methods Incidence years lived disabilities (YLDs) among sexes 2021 were obtained through Global Burden Disease (GBD) database. Trends incidence YLDs described, a joinpoint regression model was used. The APC used explore effects age, period, cohort on YLDs. Nordpred forecasted Results In there an estimated 0.63 million cases 0.33 YLDs, respectively. number age-standardized rate (ASR) both gradually increased. average annual percent change (AAPC) for men 0.26% −0.17%, For women, AAPC values −0.03% −0.57% ( p < 0. 001), relative risk (RR) increases lowest those aged 10–14 1–4 highest >95 90–94 period effect showed totally increase across general, male, female populations. Cohort indicated significant decline predicted 2046 initial rise, followed by decline, 2029 2034 being turning point Conclusion characteristics are complex. Thus, primary prevention measures must be strengthened. Raising awareness about osteoporosis prevention, enhancing public health education, promoting good dietary hygiene habits appropriate preventive China.