Analysis of a Case of Supercellular Convection over Bulgaria: Observations and Numerical Simulations

• DOI: 10.3390/atmos10090486
• Publication Date: 2019-08-23T14:15:07Z
• Authors: Hristo G. Chipilski; Ivan Tsonevsky; Stefan Georgiev; Tsvetelina Dimitrova; Lilia Bocheva; Xuguang Wang
• Keywords: Predictability; Supercell; Spurious relationship; Severe weather; Convective storm detection; Diabatic; Mesoscale convective system

A long-lived supercell developed in Northwest Bulgaria on 15 May 2018 and inflicted widespread damage along its track. The first part of this article presents a detailed overview the observed storm evolution. Doppler radar observations reveal that acquired typical supercellular signatures maintained reflectivity values excess 63 dBZ for more than 4 h. thunderstorm was also analyzed through lightning highlighted important characteristics overall dynamics. In second part, study investigates predictability severe weather outbreak. medium forecast ranges, global European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble indicated presence favorable conditions development deep moist convection days prior to event. set three convection-allowing simulations demonstrated practical approximately 12 h, which is considerably higher some previously reported estimates. Nevertheless, skill convective forecasts appears be limited by model errors, such as timing initiation spurious activity. relevance these errors optimal size design future numerical prediction (NWP) systems further discussed.