Evaluating and Adapting Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production in Indonesia: A Case Study of the Keduang Subwatershed, Central Java

• DOI: 10.3390/environments8110117
• Publication Date: 2021-11-02T02:21:08Z
• Authors: Andrianto Ansari; Yu-Pin Lin; Huu-Sheng Lur
• Keywords: DSSAT; Cropping system; Representative Concentration Pathways

Predicting the effect of climate change on rice yield is crucial as global food demand rapidly increases with human population. This study combined simulated daily weather data (MarkSim) and CERES-Rice crop model from Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) software to predict production three planting seasons under four scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) years 2021 2050 in Keduang subwatershed, Wonogiri Regency, Central Java, Indonesia. The was calibrated validated local cultivar (Ciherang) historical using GenCalc software. evaluation indicated good performance both calibration (coefficient determination (R2) = 0.89, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) 0.88) validation (R2 0.87, NSE 0.76). Our results suggest that predicted changing rainfall patterns, rising temperature, intensifying solar radiation can reduce all growing seasons. Under RCP 8.5, impact second dry season may decrease by up 11.77% 2050s. Relevant strategies associated policies based were provided decision makers. Furthermore, adapt production, a dynamic cropping calendar, modernization irrigation systems, integrated plant nutrient management should be developed farming practices our area. not only first assessment site but also provides solutions projected shortages threaten regional security.