Entomo-Virological Aedes aegypti Surveillance Applied for Prediction of Dengue Transmission: A Spatio-Temporal Modeling Study

• DOI: 10.3390/pathogens12010004
• Publication Date: 2022-12-21T07:31:33Z
• Authors: André de Souza Le...; Mario J. C. Ayala; Renata Defante Lopes; Caroline Amaral M...; Rafael Maciel-de-...; Daniel A. M. Villela
• Keywords: chikungunya; dengue; Zika; chikungunya; entomological surveillance; vector control; vectorial capacity; disease transmission; epidemiology; arbovirus; R; vector control; vectorial capacity; dengue; Article; 3. Good health; 03 medical and health sciences; Zika; 0302 clinical medicine; Medicine; entomological surveillance

Currently, DENV transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti affects approximately one in three people annually. The spatio-temporal heterogeneity of vector infestation and the intensity of arbovirus transmission require surveillance capable of predicting an outbreak. In this work, we used data from 4 years of reported dengue cases and entomological indicators of adult Aedes collected from approximately 3500 traps installed in the city of Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, to evaluate the spatial and temporal association between vector infestation and the occurrence of dengue cases. Entomological (TPI, ADI and MII) and entomo-virological (EVI) indexes were generated with the goal to provide local health managers with a transmission risk stratification that allows targeting areas for vector control activities. We observed a dynamic pattern in the evaluation; however, it was a low spatio-temporal correlation of Ae. aegypti and incidence of dengue. Independent temporal and spatial effects capture a significant portion of the signal given by human arbovirus cases. The entomo-virological index (EVI) significantly signaled risk in a few areas, whereas entomological indexes were not effective in providing dengue risk alert. Investigating the variation of biotic and abiotic factors between areas with and without correlation should provide more information about the local epidemiology of dengue.