A Pathway for the German Energy Sector Compatible with a 1.5 °C Carbon Budget

• DOI: 10.3390/su14021025
• Publication Date: 2022-01-18T01:49:21Z
• Authors: Sonja Simon; Mengzhu Xiao; Carina Harpprecht; Shima Sasanpour; Hedda Gardian; Thomas Pregger
• Keywords: Backcasting; Energy transition; Energy Modeling

We present an energy transition pathway constrained by a total CO2 budget of 7 Gt allocated to the German system after 2020, Budget Scenario (BS). apply normative backcasting approach for scenario building based on historical data and assumptions from existing studies. The modeling combines comprehensive model (ESM) with REMix—a cost optimization power heat that explicitly incorporates sector coupling. To achieve necessary reduction, focuses electrifying all end use sectors until 2030, adding 1.5–2 million electric vehicles road per year. In buildings, 400,000–500,000 pumps would be installed annually share district heating double 2050. scenario, coal needs phased out 2030. Wind Photovoltaic (PV) capacities need more than 290 GW 2030 reach 500 BS results indicate significant acceleration is before this higher pace must maintained thereafter