Application and parameter optimization of the moving epidemic method for influenza surveillance and early warning

• DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.1673-4092.2018.06.015
• Publication Date: 2018-12-25
• Authors: Tian Liu; Menglei Yao; Jigui Huang; Yang Wu; Honghui Liu; Man Liu; Li Liu
• Keywords: Youden's J statistic; Positive predicative value

Objective To explore the feasibility and parameter setting of moving epidemic method (MEM) in surveillance early warning influenza.

Methods The MEM models were established by using percentages influenza-like illness (ILI%) positive rates influenza virus (PR) between 20th 40th weeks each year Jingzhou City from 2010 to 2017. The optimal values δ screened results data fitting both compared. evaluated indicators included sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, negative likelihood ratio, Matthew correlation coefficient Youden index.

Results For model based on ILI% data, was 3.0, index 10.76%, 100.00%, 0.44, n/a, 0.89, 0.02, respectively. For PR 2.8, 79.62%, 95.90%, 93.33%, 86.73%, 19.44, 0.21, 0.78 75.53%, respectively.

Conclusions The more suitable than for city. 2.8.

Key words: Moving method; Influenza; Surveillance; Early