Prediction of COVID-19 Confirmed Cases in Indo-Pak Sub-Continent

• DOI: 10.3855/jidc.13419
• Publication Date: 2021-04-09T17:51:37Z
• Authors: Faheem Aslam; Tahir Mumtaz Awan; Ruqia Khan; Maira Aslam; Yasir Tariq Mohmand
• Keywords: Bangladesh; Models, Statistical; Time Factors; COVID-19; India; 3. Good health; 03 medical and health sciences; 0302 clinical medicine; Humans; Pakistan; Cities; COVID-19 ; India ; Pakistan ; Bangladesh ; Prediction ; Coronavirus; Forecasting

Introduction: The global COVID-19 pandemic originated from the Chinese city of Wuhan and gradually reached every end of the world. It has adversely affected economies of developed as well as underdeveloped countries, the subcontinent has been hit badly by the negative consequences of deadliest coronavirus. People are getting affected by the virus in large numbers and cases in growing on daily bases. Methodology: The present study employs Automatic ARIMA through R package “forecast”, to predict the growing number of cases for upcoming 14 days starting on 1st July 2020 and ending on 14 July 2020. Using 107 daily observations of the confirmed cases of COVID-19, it seems an important concern to predict the cases to help governments of the region plan accordingly. Results: The outcomes of the study indicate that ARIMA applied on the sample rationally predicts the confirmed cases of coronavirus for next 14 days in the subcontinent. An increased trend is observed for Pakistan and India with constant cases for Bangladesh in the coming 14 days. Conclusions: Pakistan is having the highest predicted growth rate in terms of cases followed by India. Therefore, the governments need to build adequate policies in order to contain the spread of the virus.