Prudent public health intervention strategies to control the coronavirus disease 2019 transmission in India

• DOI: 10.4103/ijmr.ijmr_504_20
• Publication Date: 2020-03-23T09:44:51Z
• Authors: Sandip Mandal; Tarun Bhatnagar; Nimalan Arinaminp...; Anup Agarwal; Amartya Chowdhury; Manoj Murhekar; Raman R. Gangakhe...; Swarup Sarkar
• Keywords: Pandemic; Basic reproduction number; Contact tracing

Background & objectives: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has raised urgent questions about containment and mitigation, particularly in countries where the virus not yet established human-to-human transmission. The objectives of this study were to find out if it was possible prevent, or delay, local outbreaks COVID-19 through restrictions on travel from abroad already in-country transmission, what extent would its impact be mitigated quarantine symptomatic patients? Methods: These addressed context India, using simple mathematical models infectious While there remained important uncertainties natural history COVID-19, hypothetical epidemic curves, some key findings illustrated that appeared insensitive model assumptions, as well highlighting critical data gaps. Results: It assumed identify 50 per cent individuals within three days developing symptoms. In an optimistic scenario basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) being 1.5, asymptomatic infections lacking any infectiousness, such measures reduce cumulative incidence by 62 cent. pessimistic =4, half symptomatic, projected falls two Interpretation conclusions: Port-of-entry-based entry screening travellers with suggestive clinical features COVID-19-affected countries, achieve modest delays introduction into community. Acting alone, however, insufficient delay outbreak weeks longer. Once establishes transmission community, symptomatics may have a meaningful burden. Model projections are subject substantial uncertainty can further refined more is understood infection novel virus. As public health measure, system community preparedness control impending spread country.