The Precautionary Principle (with Application to the Genetic Modification of Organisms)

• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.1410.5787
• Publication Date: 2014-01-01
• Authors: Nassim Nicholas T...; Rupert Read; Raphaël Douady; Joseph Norman; Yaneer Bar-Yam
• Keywords: Black swan theory; Precautionary Principle

We present a non-naive version of the Precautionary (PP) that allows us to avoid paranoia and paralysis by confining precaution specific domains problems. PP is intended deal with uncertainty risk in cases where absence evidence incompleteness scientific knowledge carries profound implications presence risks "black swans", unforeseen unforeseable events extreme consequence. formalize PP, placing it within statistical probabilistic structure ruin problems, which system at total failure, place we use formal fragility based approach. make central distinction between 1) thin fat tails, 2) Local systemic joint Fat Tails cases. discuss for GMOs (compared Nuclear energy) show represent public global harm (while from nuclear energy comparatively limited better characterized). should be used prescribe severe limits on GMOs.