How seasonal forecast could help a decision maker: an example of climate service for water resource management

• DOI: 10.5194/asr-13-51-2016
• Publication Date: 2016-04-12T07:28:27Z
• Authors: Christian Viel; Anne-Lise Beaulant; Jean-Michel Soube...; Jean-Pierre Céron
• Keywords: 13. Climate action; Science; Physics; QC1-999; Meteorology. Climatology; Q; 0207 environmental engineering; 02 engineering and technology; QC851-999; 6. Clean water

Abstract. The FP7 project EUPORIAS was a great opportunity for the climate community to co-design with stakeholders some original and innovative services at seasonal time scales. In this framework, Météo-France proposed prototype that aimed provide water resource managers tailored information better anticipate coming season. It is based on forecasting system, built refined hydrological suite, forced by coupled forecast model. particularly delivers probabilistic river flow prediction basins all over French territory. This paper presents work we have done "EPTB Seine Grands Lacs" (EPTB SGL), an institutional stakeholder in charge of management 4 reservoirs upper Basin. First, present phase, which means translation classical outputs into several indices, relevant influence stakeholder's decision making process (DMP). And second, detail evaluation impact DMP. experiment realised collaboration stakeholder. Concretely EPTB SGL has replayed past decisions, three different contexts: without any forecast, A B. One B really contained other only random forecasts taken from climate. placebo experiment, blind test, allowed us calculate promising skill scores DMP comparison approach climatology, EPTG current practice.