A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 2: Shortcomings and strengths of models and reconstructions

• DOI: 10.5194/cp-11-1077-2015
• Publication Date: 2015-08-25T07:34:24Z
• Authors: J. J. Gómez-Navarro; O. Bothe; S. Wagner; E. Zorita; J. P. Werner; J. Luterbacher; C. C. Raible; J. P Montávez
• Keywords: Benchmark (surveying)

Abstract. This study compares gridded European seasonal series of surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation (PRE) reconstructions with a regional climate simulation over the period 1500–1990. The area is analysed separately for nine subareas that represent majority diversity in sector. In their spatial structure, an overall good agreement found between reconstructed simulated features across Europe, supporting consistency both products. Systematic biases data sets can be explained by priori known deficiencies simulation. Simulations reconstructions, however, largely differ temporal evolution past subregions. particular, anomalies during Maunder Dalton minima show stronger response to changes external forcings than recorded reconstructions. Although this disagreement some extent expected given prominent role internal variability precipitation, certain degree variables directly affected forcings. sense, inability model reproduce warm similar winters first decades 18th century indicative fundamental limitations preclude reproducing exceptionally anomalous conditions. Despite these limitations, physically consistent set, which used as benchmark analyse different variables. A comparison leading modes SAT PRE indicates are too simplistic, especially associated linear statistical techniques generate analysis co-variability sea level pressure (SLP) yields result resembles canonical observations 20th century. However, same exhibits anomalously low correlations, points towards lack dynamical independent