Droughts in the area of Poland in recent centuries in the light of multi-proxy data

• DOI: 10.5194/cp-16-627-2020
• Publication Date: 2020-04-01T13:29:21Z
• Authors: Rajmund Przybylak; Piotr Oliński; Marcin Koprowski; Janusz Filipiak; Aleksandra Pospie...; Waldemar Chorążyc...; Radosław Puchałka; Henryk Paweł Dąbr...
• Keywords: Proxy (statistics); Documentary evidence

Abstract. The history of drought occurrence in Poland the last millennium is poorly known. To improve this knowledge we have conducted a comprehensive analysis using both proxy data (documentary and dendrochronological) instrumental measurements precipitation. paper presents main features droughts recent centuries, including their frequency occurrence, coverage, duration, intensity. reconstructions based on all mentioned sources covered period 996–2015. Examples megadroughts were also chosen documentary evidence, some them described. Various been used to identify area 1451–1800 estimate intensity, spatial duration. Twenty-two local chronologies trees (pine, oak, fir) from taken into account for detecting negative pointer years (exceptionally narrow rings). delimitation (eight long-term precipitation series) was two independent approaches (Standard Precipitation Index, SPI, calculated 1-, 3-, 24-month timescales, new method proposed by authors). For (dry months), criteria those McKee et al. (1993) modified climate conditions Łabędzki (2007). More than 100 found 1451–1800, 17 megadroughts. A greater average number observed second halves 17th century 18th particular. Dendrochronological confirmed general tendency period. Analysis SPI (including its lowest values, i.e. droughts) showed that has stable or three centuries. Extreme severe most frequent coastal part Silesia. Most had duration 2 months (about 60 %–70 %) 3–4 (10 %–20 %). Frequencies with 5-or-more lower 10 %. categories 1722–2015 greatest winter, while evidence (1451–1800) season are rarely mentioned. (a good compared delimited data. correspondence between timing identified kinds (sources).